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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-21T02:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-21T02:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19886/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the far north in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an M9.6 flare and eruption from AR 2933. The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave and opening field lines first seen around 2022-04-21T01:50Z and is followed by post eruptive arcades. It is also visible north of disk center as seen from STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-25T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19892/1
Model Inputs:
2022-04-21T02:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=379.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2022-04-21T11:16Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-04-25T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-04-24T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220421_111600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 79.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2022-04-21T16:26Z

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